How We Calculate Risk
A two-tier hybrid index blending hard quantitative data with AI-classified signals. Every score is reproducible. No black boxes.
The Doomsday Clock
Score-to-clock mapping: 0% = 12 o'clock, 100% = midnight
Reading the Clock
The clock hand moves clockwise from 12 o'clock (0%) toward midnight (100%). Each quarter represents a phase of AI displacement:
Embed the clock on your site: <iframe src="https://takeovertracker.com/embed/clock" width="400" height="450"></iframe>
Two-Tier Hybrid Index
Hard data (50%) + AI-classified signals (50%)
Pipeline Flow
Tier 1 — Hard Data Anchors (50%)
Quantitative economic data is z-score normalized against trailing historical windows, then converted to a 0-100 scale: score = clamp(50 + z × 15, 0, 100)
Month-over-month change in NAICS 51 (Information), 54 (Professional/Scientific/Technical), 71 (Arts/Entertainment). Z-score normalized against trailing 12 months. Employment drops push the score up.
Weekly initial unemployment claims (ICSA). Z-score against trailing 52 weeks. Higher claims = higher displacement signal.
Indeed Hiring Lab data + displacement keyword counts from collected signals. Z-score against 90-day window.
WARN Act firehose employee count (70%) + GDELT displacement article count (30%). Z-score against 90-day window.
Tier 2 — Categorical Signal Classification (50%)
Each signal is classified into a 5-level displacement scale by AI, then aggregated mathematically (no LLM scoring calls).
5-Level Displacement Scale
Each signal is classified into one of five levels
Signal Category Weights
How each data source type contributes to Tier 2
BLS employment, job postings, layoff data — most reliable ground truth
Earnings calls, enterprise AI spending, hiring patterns
Model benchmarks, task performance — hype-discounted
GDP per worker, productivity data, sector output
Social media, news volume — heavily discounted
AI legislation, executive orders, industry standards
Job Sector Weights
30%
Knowledge
Legal, finance, consulting
25%
Service
Support, sales, admin
25%
Technical
Software, data, IT
20%
Creative
Writing, design, marketing
Composite Math
Two-Tier Blend
Tier 1 hard data (50%) and Tier 2 categorical signals (50%) are combined via simple arithmetic mean. Neither tier can dominate alone.
Hype Discount
Tier 1 hard data serves as the reality anchor. When hype signals exceed reality, the raw blend is discounted to keep the index grounded.
Single EMA Smoothing
A single exponential moving average (alpha = 0.08, ~25-day window) filters noise while responding to genuine trends faster than the old dual-EMA.
0.5 Rounding
The final score is rounded to the nearest 0.5 percentage point. This replaces the old movement cap, providing stability without artificial constraints.
What Changed from v1
Source Credibility Hierarchy
Phase Thresholds
Each score level maps to observable labor market conditions
Data Sources
Organized by tier
Tier 1 (Hard Data)
Federal Reserve Economic Data — initial claims, employment
Bureau of Labor Statistics — monthly employment by NAICS sector
Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification Act filings
Job posting trends and AI hiring data
Tier 2 (Signal Classification)
DeepMind, HuggingFace, Meta AI, Import AI, IEEE Spectrum, BAIR, Stratechery, FT, Brookings, SHRM, HR Dive, and more
Global Database of Events — displacement-related news articles
Community sentiment on AI and job displacement
Corporate filings mentioning AI workforce changes
AI model benchmarks and capability tracking
Google Trends for displacement-related search terms
Per-Occupation Risk Scoring
Individual displacement scores for 1,100+ occupations using O*NET task data
Task Risk Formula
Every task in an occupation is classified into one of five categories and scored for AI capability:
Tasks are weighted by estimated time fraction to produce the raw score:
Task Categories & Base Risk
Higher base risk = more automatable task type
Protective Factors
Five factors can reduce the raw score by up to 55%:
Empathy, negotiation, reading social cues
Novel ideation, artistic expression, innovation
Ambiguous judgment, ethical reasoning, strategic calls
Licensing, legal requirements, safety standards
Dexterous physical tasks, precision work
Risk Tiers
75 – 100
Critical Risk
50 – 74
High Risk
25 – 49
Medium Risk
0 – 24
Low Risk
Explore the data yourself
Search 1,100+ occupations, compare risk scores, and see exactly how each job is scored.